I am a PhD student in Economics at Uppsala University. Also, affiliated with the Monetary Policy Department at Sveriges Riksbank. My current research focus on the behavior of macroeconomic forecasters. General research interests are; Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Forecast Evaluation & Behavior Economics
Biased Forecasts to Affect Voting Decisions? The Brexit Casewith Davide Cipullo
Links: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series (March 2019), Uppsala University Working Paper (March 2019)
AbstractThis paper introduces macroeconomic forecasters as political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future states of the economy and have to rely on macroeconomic forecasters. The model predicts that it is optimal for forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and influence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory using high-frequency data at the forecaster level surrounding the Brexit referendum. The results show that forecasters with stakes and influence released much more pessimistic estimates for GDP growth in the following year than other forecasters. Actual GDP growth rate in 2017 shows that forecasters with stakes and influence were also more incorrect than other institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error.
Work in progress
- Misbehavior Among Macroeconomic Forecasters
- Inefficient use of Competitors’ Forecasts?
- Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts (with Davide Cipullo)
Kommentar på Johan Lönnroths artikel ”Brev till den parlamentariska riksbankskommittén” (2018)Ekonomisk Debatt 5/2018 (with Jesper Lindé)Links: Swedish
Do Swedish Forecasters Properly Account for Sweden's International Dependence? (2017)Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2017:2 (with Jesper Lindé)Links: English, Swedish
It’s a myth that the Riksbank’s forecasts have been governed by models (2017)Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2017:1 (with Jesper Lindé)Links: English, Swedish
En myt att Riksbankens prognoser styrts av modeller (2016)Ekonomisk Debatt 8/2016 (with Jesper Lindé)Links: Swedish
An assessment of the Riksbank's international forecasts (2015)Economic Commentaries, No. 14, 2015, Sveriges Riksbank (with Ted Aranki)Links: English, Swedish
Interest and inflation rates through the lens of the theory of Irving Fisher (2015)Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2015:2 (with Magnus Jonsson)Links: English, Swedish